The European Central Bank probably isn't going to cut interest rates again on Thursday. That's because the bank's leaders don't know what kind of headwinds they'll be facing from U.S. trade policy.

Trump said the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese imports under the agreement, which he hailed as "maybe the largest deal in history."

I am not forecasting a recession now but the risk rises as tariff uncertainty continues. If not settled by the end of summer, expect a recession in the fall and winter.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 1.6% to 41,826.34. It had jumped 3.5% a day earlier on enthusiasm over the trade deal with Washington, which would raise U.S. import duties on most exports from Japan to 15% from 2.5%, instead of the 25% Trump had threatened to impose.

Dow Inc halved its dividend and forecast third-quarter revenue below analysts' expectations as the chemicals maker grapples with a prolonged industry downturn and tariff uncertainty, sending its shares down over 13% in early trading.

The country's two largest two manufacturers saw sales of traditional toys decline due to delayed orders by retailers worried about tariffs.

U.S. automakers worry that President Donald Trump’s agreement to tariff Japanese vehicles at 15% would put them at a competitive disadvantage, saying they will face steeper import taxes on steel, aluminum and parts than their competitors,

While annual inflation in the euro area hit the central bank's 2% target last month, traders widely expected a hold in July — in large part due to geopolitical volatility. The U.S. is the EU's biggest bilateral trade and investment partner and the 27-member bloc exported 503 billion euros ($590 billion) in goods to the States last year.

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April 9: Trump's higher "reciprocal tariffs" begin just after midnight. Hours later, the president says he is issuing a 90-day pause on those duties, except for China. Trump raises tariffs on Chinese goods from 104% to 145%, the highest rate so far this year.